Gary Hager’s Weekly Market Perspective

Markets Slide—Then Snap Back on Headlines Out of Iran

Market Update (Midday – March 23, 2026)

As of late Monday morning, markets are moving sharply higher following weekend developments suggesting potential progress in the Iran situation.

At the time of this writing:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +824 points (after being up over 1,100 earlier)
• S&P 500: +100 points
• NASDAQ: +345 points (after being up roughly 500 earlier)

This reinforces a key theme: markets are reacting quickly—almost instantly—to any perceived shift in geopolitical risk, particularly as it relates to energy supply.

The Underlying Trend Has Been Lower

Despite today’s rally, it’s important to keep perspective.

Markets just came off four consecutive weeks of declines, with the S&P 500 down nearly 1.9% last week alone. This is not a market with strong upward momentum—it’s a market searching for direction.

The reality is that confidence has been replaced by caution, and rallies are being driven more by headlines than by underlying conviction.

The Fed Is in No Rush to Help

The Federal Reserve held rates steady, as expected. What stands out is what they didn’t say.

There is no urgency to cut rates, and policymakers actually raised their expectations for both growth and inflation.

That’s not a dovish stance. It tells you the Fed is still concerned about inflation—and that limits their ability to step in if markets weaken further.

Inflation Is Still the Problem

One of the more telling data points this week was the jump in producer prices.

The PPI rose 0.7% month-over-month, more than double expectations.

That matters because:

• It tends to pressure both stocks and bonds
• It supports a stronger dollar
• And it signals inflation is still working its way through the system

More importantly, higher oil prices have not fully hit this data yet.

Inflation has now exceeded the Fed’s target for five straight years, and core inflation is back above 3%. Rate cuts are becoming less likely, not more.

Earnings Expectations Are Starting to Reset

At the beginning of the year, expectations for Q1 earnings growth were close to 15%.

That number has already come down to about 13%, with further revisions likely.

This is how markets adjust—gradually, not all at once. Expectations come down first, and prices follow.

The Consumer Is Losing Some Ground

There had been some optimism tied to tax refunds and improved affordability earlier this year.

That is starting to fade.

Higher gasoline prices are offsetting much of that benefit, and that has a direct impact on consumer sentiment and spending.

When energy prices rise, it shows up quickly—and it tends to ripple through the broader economy.

Credit Markets Are Stable—But Not Perfect

So far, credit markets are not signaling major stress.

• High-yield spreads remain relatively tight
• Banks are well-capitalized
• Private credit concerns appear manageable

However, spreads have begun to widen modestly.

That’s worth watching closely, because credit is typically where small problems turn into larger ones.

Markets May Be Oversold Short Term

There is one technical signal that stands out.

At one point last week, less than 20% of stocks were trading above their 20-day moving average.

Historically, that suggests an oversold condition, which often leads to short-term rallies—exactly the kind of move we are seeing today.

But short-term relief doesn’t necessarily change the broader trend.

Energy Still Drives the Narrative

Everything continues to come back to one issue—energy.

Oil prices have been volatile, but supply has not been fully disrupted. That’s the balancing factor.

If oil stabilizes and supply concerns ease, the broader economy likely continues to move forward.

If not, the environment shifts toward slower growth paired with higher inflation, which is far more challenging for both markets and policymakers.

My Perspective

This is not a broken market—but it is a sensitive one.

The recent decline has been orderly, not disorderly, especially relative to the gains of the past several years. Earnings are still positive. The economy had momentum coming into this period.

At the same time, there is a clear shift underway:

• Inflation is proving more persistent
• Rate cuts are becoming less certain
• Energy prices are beginning to pressure the system

And now, as today shows, markets are reacting quickly to any change in the geopolitical narrative.

Bottom Line

Right now, markets are being driven by two competing forces:

• Fundamentals — steady, but facing pressure from inflation and energy
• Headlines — fast-moving and capable of shifting sentiment in a single day

Today’s rally is a reminder of how quickly things can move—but it doesn’t resolve the underlying issues.

Until there is sustained clarity around energy prices and inflation, expect volatility to remain a defining feature of this market.

About Gary Hager

Gary K. Hager, CFP®, CBEC, CTFA, is the founder of Integrated Wealth Management. He advises business owners and families on exit planning, estate strategies, and long-term wealth structuring.